Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
