Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
